Expert Discussion “Development of national resilience strategy and coalition defence in the hybrid war conditions: adaptation of Ukraine’s lessons to partner countries” was held on the sidelines of the Third Parliamentary Summit of the International Crimea Platform on October 24, 2024, in Riga.
Viktor Kevliuk, expert of the Centre for Defence Strategies, member of the Crimea Platform Expert Network, retired Colonel, presented a brief review of the strategies used by Russia and Ukraine, in particular in the Black Sea. “In general, naval operations in the Azov and Black Sea regions have shown that, even under the conditions of technological superiority of Russia, small and well-organized forces of Ukraine are successfully resisting aggression using advanced asymmetric means and an effective strategy. It should be said that all those who support Ukraine and Crimea are part of our common struggle”.
Despite the success of the Ukrainian army, the Russian aggression targets not only Ukraine, but also the security in Europe. This was emphasized in the speech by Oleksandr Kharchenko, director of the Centre for Energy Studies, member of the Crimea Platform Expert Network. He noted that the European energy system was still sensitive to Russian aggression if it went beyond the territory of Ukraine. “We have simulated the European energy system model that shows what would happen if five high-voltage substations located in two parts of Germany, the Czech Republic, Belgium and Austria were blown up: about 70% of Europe would be left without electricity. This will lead to at least two days of total blackout, after which these regions, including 90% of Germany, Belgium, the Czech Republic, and a large part of Poland, will have limited power supply – perhaps 3-4 hours a day for the next two weeks.”
The Baltic States should be also ready to the Russian aggression in different formats – this was pointed out by another panel speaker – Janis Kazocins – an honourable researcher of the Centre for Geopolitical Studies Riga, National Security Adviser to the President of Latvia and secretary of the National Security Council (2016 – 2023). “Russia will not be able to attack NATO in the next few years. Of course, it depends on how long you count, but it is about the nearest period, since Russia cannot cope even with a weaker Ukraine now. Therefore, they will move to asymmetric warfare and hybrid methods, which have already been mentioned,” he shared.
For a full video recording of the discussion follow the link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jo6Laj2KRxo
Expert discussions within the 3rd Parliamentary Summit of International Crimea Platform were held thanks to the support of the UK Government.